- Pakistan 2000-ish. My first guess is that the effort to build a competent national army leads to the development of only one national institution that finds itself hampered by corruption at the center. That is, the Afghan military launches a coup, takes over and reigns in a similar way as Pakistan's did for most of the Aughts. Its influence varies from light to heavy across the country, still focused largely on the Taliban but co-opts various elements across the country (some drug barons/warlords, but not others).
- Somalia of the past twenty years. The international community gives up, leaving behind a largely stalemated civil war that peaks and ebbs. US sends drones/special forces when terrorist targets appear.
- Status quo plus a.k.a. Afghanistan of 2003. The surge works to reverse the Taliban's momentum so that it becomes more of a nuisance than a threat. The government of Afghanistan stumbles along without really providing that much improved governance while some development takes place.
- Constitutional decentralization/accommodation. Elements of the Taliban would be brought back into government, and much of the government's authority would be pushed down to the provinces or even further below to districts.
If I had to bet on one, my guess would probably be #2 as the military might not be strong enough to hold together to take power.
But your guess is as good as mine, so what do you think?